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Nuovi dati macrosismici e loro utilizzoBologna, 23 giugno 2008 Bill Bakun USGS -Menlo Park Towards a United States Earthquake Catalogue Why not start now.

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Presentazione sul tema: "Nuovi dati macrosismici e loro utilizzoBologna, 23 giugno 2008 Bill Bakun USGS -Menlo Park Towards a United States Earthquake Catalogue Why not start now."— Transcript della presentazione:

1 Nuovi dati macrosismici e loro utilizzoBologna, 23 giugno 2008 Bill Bakun USGS -Menlo Park Towards a United States Earthquake Catalogue Why not start now with California? Why didn’t we do this 10 years ago?

2 Nuovi dati macrosismici e loro utilizzoBologna, 23 giugno 2008 Three Parts Historical, Instrumental,Future Events  Same attributes, different rules  Can be stitched together

3 Nuovi dati macrosismici e loro utilizzoBologna, 23 giugno 2008 Status Quo Many countries have national earthquake catalogs  Basis for important products USA has no national catalog  Every probability report, every national ground motion map redefines the catalog  Waste of Time  Inconsistent Products

4 Nuovi dati macrosismici e loro utilizzoBologna, 23 giugno 2008 A European Historical Earthquake Catalog YearMoDaHo 1578 0401 1578042711 1578052016 1578102104 1579012606 15790130 1580 040618 15800501 15801103 15801224 15810310 1581061807 1582 05 Ax SCIACCA Vrancea GERA BAS-PLATEAUX DAUPHINOIS Melilla MARCHE-BOISCHAUT ? Lorca.MU Myonia DOVER STRAITS TRANSYLVANIA BOXMEER Málaga Alcalá la Real POZZUOLI Lat Lon 37.50813.083 45.70026.600 50.88012.230 45.5835.350 35.267-2.933 46.5832.000 37.683-1.700 38.45022.310 51.0001.660 51.0001.660 46.50024.000 46.50024.000 51.6005.900 36.717-4.417 37.467-3.933 40.82214.123 RootRLNmdpIx Barbano et al., 19961117 Purcaru, 197922 Sieberg, 1940b22 SisFrance, 20091234 Martinez S. & M., 20021318 SisFrance, 200912207 Martinez S. & M., 20021317 Kouskouna et al., 199811108 Musson, 200811917-8 Musson, 2008117F Réthly, 195222 Réthly, 195222 Van Beurden, 189022 Martinez S. & M., 20021327 Martinez S. & M., 20021316-7 Arch.Mac.GNDT, 19951117-8 ? Io Mw 75.17 6.50 5.00 6-7 8 7-8 7 96.80 5.46 3.92 7 7 4.30 7 7-8 5.37 earthquake parameters

5 Nuovi dati macrosismici e loro utilizzoBologna, 23 giugno 2008 27/12/1722 Algarve Martinez S. & M., 2002 Boxer iNA4 EventRoot MDP compilation MethodCalibrationLat, LonMw Ic2 37.106, -7.8735.74 ± 0.50 An Example from Europe: varied alternatives and results

6 Nuovi dati macrosismici e loro utilizzoBologna, 23 giugno 2008 27/12/1722 Algarve Martinez S. & M., 2002 Boxer iNA4 Boxer nNA4 EventRoot MDP compilation MethodCalibrationLat, LonMw Ic2 B&W NA4 Literature MEEPNA4 37.106, -7.873 37.117, -7.738 37.171, -7.774 36.979, -7.675 5.74 ± 0.50 5.40 ± 0.23 6.81 ± 0.50 6.41 ±0.50 5.60 California37.153, -7.7656.59 ±0.50 Earthquake parameters from MDPs: varied alternatives and results

7 Nuovi dati macrosismici e loro utilizzoBologna, 23 giugno 2008 27/12/1722 Algarve Martinez S. & M., 2002 Boxer iNA4 Boxer nNA4 Baptista et al., 2007 EventRoot MDP compilation MethodCalibrationLat, LonMw Ic2 B&W NA4 Literature MEEPNA4 37.106, -7.873 37.117, -7.738 37.171, -7.774 36.979, -7.675 5.74 ± 0.50 5.40 ± 0.23 6.81 ± 0.50 6.41 ±0.50 5.60 Boxer iNA4 Boxer nNA4 Ic2 B&WNA4 MEEPNA4 37.106, -7.873 37.108, -7.837 37.074, -7.757 6.27 ±0.35 5.97 ±0.01 6.38 ±0.50 6.00 ±0.20 California37.153, -7.7656.59 ±0.50 Earthquake parameters from MDPs: varied alternatives and results

8 Nuovi dati macrosismici e loro utilizzoBologna, 23 giugno 2008 27/12/1722 Algarve Martinez S. & M., 2002 Boxer iNA4 Boxer nNA4 Baptista et al., 2007 EventRoot MDP compilation MethodCalibrationLat, LonMw Ic2 B&W NA4 Literature MEEPNA4 37.106, -7.873 37.117, -7.738 37.171, -7.774 36.979, -7.675 5.74 ± 0.50 5.40 ± 0.23 6.81 ± 0.50 6.41 ±0.50 5.60 Boxer iNA4 Boxer nNA4 Ic2 B&WNA4 MEEPNA4 37.106, -7.873 37.108, -7.837 37.074, -7.757 6.27 ±0.35 5.97 ±0.01 6.38 ±0.50 6.00 ±0.20 California37.153, -7.7656.59 ±0.50 Martinez S. & M., 2002 Mw = f (Io)?Iberian catalog36.400, -7.7676.50 Earthquake parameters from MDPs: varied alternatives and results

9 Nuovi dati macrosismici e loro utilizzoBologna, 23 giugno 2008 27/12/1722 Algarve Martinez S. & M., 2002 Boxer iNA4 Boxer nNA4 Baptista et al., 2007 EventRoot MDP compilation MethodCalibrationLat, LonMw Ic2 B&W NA4 Literature MEEPNA4 37.106, -7.873 37.117, -7.738 37.171, -7.774 36.979, -7.675 5.74 ± 0.50 5.40 ± 0.23 6.81 ± 0.50 6.41 ±0.50 5.60 Boxer iNA4 Boxer nNA4 Ic2 B&WNA4 MEEPNA4 37.106, -7.873 37.108, -7.837 37.074, -7.757 6.27 ±0.35 5.97 ±0.01 6.38 ±0.50 6.00 ±0.20 California37.153, -7.7656.59 ±0.50 Martinez S. & M., 2002 Mw = f (Io)?Iberian catalog36.400, -7.7676.50 ? Vilanova & Fo., 200737.170, -7.5806.90 Earthquake parameters from MDPs: alternative methods and results

10 Nuovi dati macrosismici e loro utilizzoBologna, 23 giugno 2008 27/12/1722 Algarve Martinez S. & M., 2002 Boxer iNA4 Boxer nNA4 Baptista et al., 2007 EventRoot MDP compilation MethodCalibrationLat, LonMw Ic2 B&W NA4 Literature MEEPNA4 37.106, -7.873 37.117, -7.738 37.171, -7.774 36.979, -7.675 5.74 ± 0.50 5.40 ± 0.23 6.81 ± 0.50 6.41 ±0.50 5.60 Boxer iNA4 Boxer nNA4 Ic2 B&WNA4 MEEPNA4 37.106, -7.873 37.108, -7.837 37.074, -7.757 6.27 ±0.35 5.97 ±0.01 6.38 ±0.50 6.00 ±0.20 California37.153, -7.7656.59 ±0.50 Martinez S. & M., 2002 Mw = f (Io)?Iberian catalog36.400, -7.7676.50 ? Vilanova & Fo., 200737.170, -7.5806.90 Tectonic Baptista et al., 200737.017, -7.8176.50 Earthquake parameters from MDPs: alternative methods and results Phase 1: Compile for each event  Use undergrads, interns  Review, revise

11 Nuovi dati macrosismici e loro utilizzoBologna, 23 giugno 2008 27/12/1722 Algarve Martinez S. & M., 2002 Boxer iNA4 Boxer nNA4 Baptista et al., 2007 EventRoot MDP compilation MethodCalibrationLat, LonMw Ic2 B&W NA4 Literature MEEPNA4 37.106, -7.873 37.117, -7.738 37.171, -7.774 36.979, -7.675 5.74 ± 0.50 5.40 ± 0.23 6.81 ± 0.50 6.41 ±0.50 5.60 Boxer iNA4 Boxer nNA4 Ic2 B&WNA4 MEEPNA4 37.106, -7.873 37.108, -7.837 37.074, -7.757 6.27 ±0.35 5.97 ±0.01 6.38 ±0.50 6.00 ±0.20 California37.153, -7.7656.59 ±0.50 Martinez S. & M., 2002 Mw = f (Io)?Iberian catalog36.400, -7.7676.50 ? Vilanova & Fo., 200737.170, -7.5806.90 Tectonic Baptista et al., 200737.017, -7.8176.50 Earthquake parameters from MDPs: alternative methods and results Phase 1: Compile for each event  Use undergrads, interns  Review, revise Phase 2:Expert Panel selects Preferred Path and WHY!

12 Nuovi dati macrosismici e loro utilizzoBologna, 23 giugno 2008 Stakeholders  Users: Mark Peterson, Ned Field  $$$: NRC, COE, PG&E  Enforcers: Management  Experts: All Views Represented

13 Nuovi dati macrosismici e loro utilizzoBologna, 23 giugno 2008 Include Parameters (and uncertainties) for All Significant Historical and Instrumental earthquakes Supported by all stakeholders (NEHRP,USGS, SCEC, etc.) Basis for all US earthquake hazard products A Unified Archive (Distributed?) Include Data Roots, alternative solutions Accessible-to-All On Line Catalog Attributes:

14 Nuovi dati macrosismici e loro utilizzoBologna, 23 giugno 2008 27/12/1722 Algarve Martinez S. & M., 2002 Boxer iNA4 Boxer nNA4 Baptista et al., 2007 EventRoot MDP compilation MethodCalibrationLat, LonMw Ic2 B&W NA4 Literature MEEPNA4 37.106, -7.873 37.117, -7.738 37.171, -7.774 36.979, -7.675 5.74 ± 0.50 5.40 ± 0.23 6.81 ± 0.50 6.41 ±0.50 5.60 Boxer iNA4 Boxer nNA4 Ic2 B&WNA4 MEEPNA4 37.106, -7.873 37.108, -7.837 37.074, -7.757 6.27 ±0.35 5.97 ±0.01 6.38 ±0.50 6.00 ±0.20 California37.153, -7.7656.59 ±0.50 Martinez S. & M., 2002 Mw = f (Io)?Iberian catalog36.400, -7.7676.50 ? Vilanova & Fo., 200737.170, -7.5806.90 Tectonic Baptista et al., 200737.017, -7.8176.50 Earthquake parameters from MDPs: alternative methods and results Phase 1: Compile for each event  Use undergrads, interns  Review, revise Phase 2:Expert Panel selects Preferred Path and WHY!

15 Nuovi dati macrosismici e loro utilizzoBologna, 23 giugno 2008

16 Nuovi dati macrosismici e loro utilizzoBologna, 23 giugno 2008

17 Nuovi dati macrosismici e loro utilizzoBologna, 23 giugno 2008 The Easy Part: Instrumental List –Pointers to related Intensity Data The Hard Part: Pre-Instrumental List –Historical earthquakes –-Paleoseismic events

18 Nuovi dati macrosismici e loro utilizzoBologna, 23 giugno 2008 Instrumental Side: More to Do Explain Puzzling Magnitudes 1949 Puget Sound 1989 Loma Prieta

19 Nuovi dati macrosismici e loro utilizzoBologna, 23 giugno 2008 Historical Earthquakes Build on the European experience

20 Nuovi dati macrosismici e loro utilizzoBologna, 23 giugno 2008 The Really Hard Part Controversial Historical Earthquakes –Different compilations of data –Different Analyses –Different Locations or Magnitudes

21 Nuovi dati macrosismici e loro utilizzoBologna, 23 giugno 2008 US Complexity Counterparts? Historical? Instrumental? 1811-1812 New Madrid Where? Magnitude? 1906 San Francisco 3 Published Epicenters? 3 Published Magnitudes?

22 Nuovi dati macrosismici e loro utilizzoBologna, 23 giugno 2008 Historical Earthquakes: Build List of Historical Earthquakes (100? M > 5 1/2 events) Construct Roots Empanel experts to select preferred solutions Management to Maintain and Support the catalog Do ii now! GEM will build and maintain the archive and internet interface


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