L’Italia verso il 2020 Lorenzo Bini Smaghi

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1 L’Italia verso il 2020 Lorenzo Bini Smaghi
______________________________________________________________________ Convegno della Federazione Nazionale dei Cavalieri del Lavoro Firenze, 2 Ottobre 2010 L’Italia verso il 2020 Lorenzo Bini Smaghi Banca Centrale Europea ______________________________________________________________________ EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK

2 L’Italia è ancora indietro nella ripresa
______________________________________________________________________ With 2008.Q1 = 100, in 2010.Q2 the GDP level was: 97.8 in France, 97.3 in Germany, 97 in the Euro area, 95.4 in Spain, 94.4 in Italy PIL reale, valori (2008.Q1=100). Fonte: Eurostat e EC Interim Forecast (Settembre 2010). ______________________________________________________________________ 2 EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK

3 E le prospettive sono modeste
______________________________________________________________________ With 2000 = 100, in 2009 real GDP was: 131.3 in Ireland, 122.9 in Spain, 110.9 in France, 110.0 in the Euro area, 105.2 in Germany, 101.4 in Italy PIL reale, valori (2000=100). Fonte: Eurostat e proiezioni IMF (WEO, luglio 2010). ______________________________________________________________________ 3 EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK

4 Soprattutto considerando il reddito medio
______________________________________________________________________ With 2000 = 100, in 2009 per capita real GDP was: 108.0 in Spain, 105.5 in Germany, 105.0 in the Euro area, 104.6 in France 96.8 in Italy. In 2007 (the peak year) in Italy per capita GDP was In 2015, according to the IMF projections, it will be as real GDP is projected to grow slowly (1.3% a year on average in the period) and population is projected to grow by 0.6% a year. Assuming a 1% per capita yearly GDP growth for the period in Italy, the level of 2007 would be reached only in 2020 PIL reale pro capite (2000=100). Fonte: Eurostat e proiezioni IMF (WEO, luglio 2010). ______________________________________________________________________ 4 EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK

5 Nei prossimi 10 anni ______________________________________________________________________ La crescita rischia di essere ulteriormente appesantita da questi fattori: debito pubblico tassi d’interesse posizione competitiva prezzi delle materie prime demografia Che si sono tutti aggravati rispetto a 10 anni fa 5 EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK 5

6 Il debito pubblico è più alto
______________________________________________________________________ According to the IMF projections, the General government gross debt as a percent of GDP is going to go: From 109.2% in 2000, to 103.4% in 2007 and to 124.7% in 2015 in Italy, From 57.3% in 2000, to 63.8% in 2007 and to 94.8% in 2015 in France, From 59.7% in 2000, to 65.0% in 2007 and to 81.5% in 2015 in Germany, Debito pubblico, rapporto percentuale sul PIL. Fonte: FMI (WEO, luglio 2010). ______________________________________________________________________ 6 EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK 6

7 Anche se l’indebitamento di famiglie e imprese non finanziarie è minore in Italia
______________________________________________________________________ The ratios are computed as: For HH: Loans, liabilities (reporting institutional sector Households, non-profit institutions serving households) / Gross domestic product at current market prices For NFC: Main financial liabilities: currency and deposits, debt securities (excluding financial derivatives) and loans (reporting institutional sector Non Financial corporations) / Gross domestic product at current market prices Indebitamento di famiglie (HH) e imprese non finanziarie (NFC), rapporto percentuale sul PIL, anno Fonte: elaborazioni su dati Eurostat. ______________________________________________________________________ 7 EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK 7

8 La curva dei tassi è in salita
______________________________________________________________________ Yield curve on the 15th September 2010. As of that day the 10y spread with Germany was 176bp for Spain, 149 for Italy Curve dei rendimenti per l’area dell’Euro e gli Stati Uniti. Fonte: Bloomberg. ______________________________________________________________________ 8 EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK 8

9 Il gap di competitività è elevato
______________________________________________________________________ Competitiveness developments here are captured by the evolution of Nominal Unit Labour Costs. With Germany = 100, in Italy it was in 2010.Q1. Competitività calcolata sulla base dei costi unitari del lavoro relativi a quelli della Germania, 2000=100. Fonte: Eurostat. Nota: dati trimestrali fino a 2010 Q1, ad eccezione di Germania e Spagna, fino a 2010 Q2. ______________________________________________________________________ 9 EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK 9

10 A causa della bassa produttività, nell’industria …
______________________________________________________________________ Livelli di produttività pro capite nel settore industriale, 2000=100. Fonte: Eurostat. Nota: basati sul valore aggiunto. ______________________________________________________________________ 10 EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK 10

11 … e ancor più nei servizi
______________________________________________________________________ Livelli di produttività pro capite nel settore dei servizi, 2000=100. Fonte: Eurostat. Nota: basati sul valore aggiunto. ______________________________________________________________________ 11 EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK 11

12 Il basso contenuto tecnologico dell’export
______________________________________________________________________ Note: The degree of overlap in export specialisation with China is determined by comparing Balassa Indices for 72 industries. Struttura del commercio estero – grado di sovrapposizione delle esportazioni fra alcuni paesi selezionati e la Cina (media ). Fonte: CHELEM e elaborazioni ECB. ______________________________________________________________________ 12 EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK 12

13 Spiega la bassa crescita delle esportazioni
______________________________________________________________________ The average rate of growth (not composite) before the great fall in 2009 (which is excluded) is: Ireland 9.9%, Finland 7.9%, Germany 7.7%, Austria 7.0%, Spain and Netherlands 6.1%, Euro Area 6.0%, Portugal 5.1%, Belgium 4.5%, France 4.1%, Greece 3.7%, Italy 2.4% Crescita delle esportazioni (tasso di crescita medio, ). Fonte: Eurostat. ______________________________________________________________________ 13 EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK 13

14 Il trend delle materie prime è sfavorevole
______________________________________________________________________ Prezzi delle materie prime, indici IMF (2000=100). Fonte: IMF. ______________________________________________________________________ 14 EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK 14

15 Le tendenze demografiche sono negative
______________________________________________________________________ In Italy the population was 64% in 2008 and is projected to be 62% in 2020 and 54% in 2050; the 65+ population was 19% in 2008 and is projected to be 22% in 2020 and 31% in 2050. In contrast in UK the population was 63% in 2008 and is projected to be 62% in 2020 and 58% in 2050; the 65+ population was 15% in 2008 and is projected to be 18% in 2020 and 22% in 2050. Distribuzione della popolazione per età. Fonte: Eurostat, Europop 2008, Convergence scenario, livello nazionale. ______________________________________________________________________ 15 EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK 15

16 Dati questi ulteriori handicap
______________________________________________________________________ E ancor più importante per l’Italia adottare rapidamente riforme, in linea con gli obiettivi di “Europa 2020” 16 EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK 16

17 Europa 2020: gli obiettivi e dove siamo
______________________________________________________________________ Il 75% della popolazione compresa fra i 20 e i 64 anni deve essere occupata (in Italia è il 62%) Il 3% del PIL dell’UE deve essere investito in R&S (in Italia è l’1.2%) Obiettivo "20/20/20" in campo climatico/ambientale La quota di abbandoni scolastici deve essere portata sotto il 10%; almeno il 40% dei giovani deve completare il ciclo di educazione terziario (in Italia siamo al 19% in entrambi i casi) 20 milioni di cittadini europei devono essere sollevati dal rischio di povertà As indicated by the EC President (Communication from the Commission, Europe 2020 a strategy for smart, sustainable and inclusive growth, 3/3/2010) Europe 2020 puts forward three priorities: – Smart growth: developing an economy based on knowledge and innovation. – Sustainable growth: promoting a more resource efficient, greener and more competitive economy. – Inclusive growth: fostering a high-employment economy delivering social and territorial cohesion. The “20/20/20” climate/energy objective means:Reduce greenhouse gas emissions by at least 20% compared to 1990 levels or by 30%, if the conditions are right; increase the share of renewable energy sources in our final energy consumption to 20%; and a 20% increase in energy efficiency; 17 EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK 17

18 Occupazione: obiettivo lontano, soprattutto per quella femminile
______________________________________________________________________ In 2009 the female Employment Rate has been 49.7% in Italy, 62.5% in EU and 66.5% in the United States. According to the European Commission: “The employment rate of the population aged should increase from the current 69% in the EU particularly through the greater involvement of women, older workers and the better integration of migrants in the work force” Tasso di occupazione per genere, classe di età 20-64, anno Fonte: Eurostat ______________________________________________________________________ 18 EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK 18

19 R&S: obiettivo molto lontano
______________________________________________________________________ The indicator provided is GERD (Gross domestic expenditure on R&D) as a percentage of GDP. "Research and experimental development (R&D) comprise creative work undertaken on a systematic basis in order to increase the stock of knowledge, including knowledge of man, culture and society and the use of this stock of knowledge to devise new applications" (Frascati Manual, 2002 edition, § 63 ). In 2008 GERD was: 2.6% in Germany, 2.0% in France, 1.9% in EU27, 1.2% in Italy And: 2.6% in the US, 3.4% in Japan Spesa complessiva in R&S rispetto al PIL. Fonte: Eurostat. ______________________________________________________________________ 19 EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK 19

20 Energie rinnovabili: l’Italia è indietro
______________________________________________________________________ The target is 20% for the whole of EU27, but varies acros countries. The highest targets are for Sweden (49%), Latvia (40%) and Finland (38%). The lowest targets are for Malta (10%), Luxembourg (11%) and Belgium, Czech Republic, Cyprus and Hungary (all 13%) The target for Italy is 17%. Quota di energie rinnovabili rispetto al consumo complessivo di energia. fonte: Eurostat. ______________________________________________________________________ 20 EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK 20

21 Efficienza energetica: pochi progressi
______________________________________________________________________ According to Eurostat: “This indicator is the ratio between the gross inland consumption of energy and the gross domestic product (GDP) for a given calendar year. It measures the energy consumption of an economy and its overall energy efficiency. The gross inland consumption of energy is calculated as the sum of the gross inland consumption of five energy types: coal, electricity, oil, natural gas and renewable energy sources. The energy intensity ratio is determined by dividing the gross inland consumption by the GDP. Since gross inland consumption is measured in kgoe (kilogram of oil equivalent) and GDP in EUR, this ratio is measured in kgoe per EUR.” Rapporto fra consumo energetico complessivo e PIL, 1990=100. Fonte: Eurostat. ______________________________________________________________________ 21 EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK

22 Istruzione: sotto la media OCSE
______________________________________________________________________ Risultato medio dei test PISA per diverse materie. Fonte: OECD. ______________________________________________________________________ 22 EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK

23 Anche per abbandoni e istruzione terziaria
______________________________________________________________________ Abbandoni della scuola e dell’istruzione tecnica e completamento del ciclo terziario degli studi, classe di età Fonte: Eurostat ______________________________________________________________________ 23 EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK

24 La forza lavoro è poco qualificata …
______________________________________________________________________ Lavoratori a qualifica alta, media e bassa, classe di età 20-64, anno 2009. Fonte: European Labour Force Survey, Eurostat. ______________________________________________________________________ 24 EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK

25 … e poco remunerata ______________________________________________________________________ For Italy data up to 2006, for France up to 2007, for Germany up to 2008. According to the OECD indicators, letting the labour earnings of those with upper secondary and post-secondary non-tertiary education = 100, In Italy the earnings for those with tertiary education of type-A or and advanced research programmes were equal to 155. Such average value is the result of values of 178 for males and 143 for females. For Germany the values were respectively: 180 all, 178 males, 182 females. For France: 168 all, 178 males, 161 females. For the OECD average: 164 all, 169 males, 164 females. Redditi da lavoro relativi di chi è in possesso di educazione terziaria (istruzione secondaria o post secondaria non terziaria = 100; 2008 o ultimo anno disponibile) . Fonte: Education at a Glance 2010, OECD Indicators. ______________________________________________________________________ 25 EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK

26 Il rischio povertà è più elevato
______________________________________________________________________ This indicator summarizes the number of people who are either at risk-of-poverty and/or materially deprived and/or living in households with very low work intensity. Interactions between the indicators are excluded. “At risk-of-poverty” are persons with an equivalised disposable income below the risk-of-poverty threshold, which is set at 60 % of the national median equivalised disposable income (after social transfers). “People living in households with very low work intensity” are people aged 0-59 living in households where the adults work less than 20% of their total work potential during the past year “Material deprivation” covers indicators relating to economic strain, durables, housing and environment of the dwelling. Percentuale della popolazione a rischio di povertà ed esclusione. Fonte: Eurostat. ______________________________________________________________________ 26 EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK 26

27 Conclusione ______________________________________________________________________ Nei prossimi anni la crescita italiana rischia di essere ancor più debole del passato, per: le conseguenze della recente recessione (debito) possibili sviluppi esterni sfavorevoli (costo delle materie prime) fattori strutturali (competitività, sviluppi demografici) È urgente affrontare questi nodi, ponendo gli obiettivi di Europa 2020 al centro dell’agenda delle riforme ______________________________________________________________________ 27 EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK 27

28 Grazie per la vostra attenzione
______________________________________________________________________ Grazie per la vostra attenzione ______________________________________________________________________ EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK 28

29 ______________________________________________________________________
Slide complementari ______________________________________________________________________ EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK 29

30 Ostacoli alla conduzione degli affari
______________________________________________________________________ Fare impresa. Fonte: World Bank. Note: il Sostegno della struttura legale al credito misura quanto le regole sul collaterale e le procedure di fallimento facilitino la concessione di prestiti (un numero più elevato indica una condizione migliore). La regolazione del commercio estero indica il numero medio di giorni necessario per eseguire tutte le procedure necessarie per l’esportazione Sostegno della struttura legale al credito: measures how well collateral and bankruptcy laws facilitate lending. Higher number denotes a more supportive environment for granting credit. Grado di tassazione dei profitti: total amount of taxes and mandatory contributions payable by the business Regolamentazione del commercio estero: time necessary to comply with all procedures required to export goods (days) Nota: la media per l’Euro area esclude Slovenia e Slovacchia ______________________________________________________________________ A1 EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK 30

31 I servizi professionali sono altamente regolati..
______________________________________________________________________ This chart shows the OECD indicator of product market regulation (PMR) in professional services. The professional services indicators cover entry and conduct regulations in the legal, accounting, engineering, and architecture professions and the retail distribution sector. A higher number means higher regulation. Indice di regolamentazione del mercato dei prodotti (PMR) nel settore dei servizi professionali, anno Fonte: OECD. Nota: un valore più elevato indica una maggiore regolazione; l’indice PMR varia fra 0 e 6. ______________________________________________________________________ A2 EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK 31

32 ..e ci sono stati pochi miglioramenti
______________________________________________________________________ This table shows the OECD indicator of product market regulation (PMR) in professional services. The professional services indicators cover entry and conduct regulations in the legal, accounting, engineering, and architecture professions and the retail distribution sector. A higher number means higher regulation. Indice di regolamentazione del mercato dei prodotti (PMR) nel settore dei servizi professionali, anno Fonte: OECD. Nota: un valore più elevato indica una maggiore regolazione; l’indice PMR varia fra 0 e 6. ______________________________________________________________________ A3 EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK 32

33 Il peso della regolamentazione è rilevante anche nel commercio
______________________________________________________________________ This slide contains the OECD Indicators of Regulation Impact. These indicators measure the potential costs of anti-competitive regulation in selected non-manufacturing sectors on sectors of the economy that use the output of non-manufacturing sectors as intermediate inputs in the production process. Indicatori OECD dell’impatto della regolamentazione, commercio all’ingrosso e al dettaglio, anno Fonte: OECD. Nota: questi indicatori misurano il costo potenziale di regolamenti anticompetitivi. Un valore più elevato indica un impatto maggiore. ______________________________________________________________________ A4 EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK 33

34 La produttività del lavoro per occupato si è ridotta rispetto alla media EU
______________________________________________________________________ Produttività del lavoro per occupato, EU27=100. Fonte: Eurostat. ______________________________________________________________________ A5 EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK 34

35 Rimane alta la disoccupazione giovanile
______________________________________________________________________ The harmonised unemployment rate for the age class in July 2010 was 26.8% in Italy, 22.3% in France, 19.6% in Italy and 9.2% in Germany. Was 41.5% in Spain (not showed in the graph). Tasso di disoccupazione armonizzato, classe di età 15-24, luglio Fonte: Eurostat. ______________________________________________________________________ A6 EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK 35

36 I risultati dei test PISA sono fortemente differenziati fra le regioni
______________________________________________________________________ Risultato medio in matematica, per nazioni e regioni disponibili, anno Fonte: OECD ______________________________________________________________________ A7 EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK 36