COSMO-LEPS verification SON 2004 precipitation new suite Chiara Marsigli ARPA-SIM – WG4.

Presentazione sul tema: "COSMO-LEPS verification SON 2004 precipitation new suite Chiara Marsigli ARPA-SIM – WG4."— Transcript della presentazione:

1 COSMO-LEPS verification SON 2004 precipitation new suite Chiara Marsigli ARPA-SIM – WG4

2 The COSMO-LEPS suite since June 2004 d-1 dd+5 d+1d+2 d+4d+3 middle EPS youngest EPS clustering period 00 12 Cluster Analysis and RM identification 4 variables Z U V Q 3 levels 500 700 850 hPa 2 time steps Cluster Analysis and RM identification European area Complete Linkage COSMO- LEPS Integratio n Domain 10 Representative Members driving the 10 Lokal Modell integrations (weighted according to the cluster populations) employing either Tiedtke or Kain- Fristch convection scheme (randomly choosen) COSMO- LEPS clusterin g area 10 km 32 layers 10 members 120 h

3 COSMO stations Verification grid

4 Verification of the distributions Station observation Grid point forecast The verification has been made in terms of: Average value Maximum value 50th percentile (Median) 90th percentile in a box

5 COSMO-LEPS 10-MEMBER EPS tp > 20mm/24h tp > 10mm/24h tp > 20mm/24h tp > 30mm/24h Average values boxes 1.5x1.5 deg

6 COSMO-LEPS 10-MEMBER EPS Average values boxes 1.5x1.5 deg

7 COSMO-LEPS 10-MEMBER EPS 50th percentile values boxes 1.5x1.5 deg tp > 10mm/24h tp > 20mm/24h tp > 10mm/24h tp > 20mm/24h tp > 30mm/24h

8 COSMO-LEPS 10-MEMBER EPS 50th percentile values boxes 1.5x1.5 deg

9 COSMO-LEPS 10-MEMBER EPS 90th percentile values boxes 1.5x1.5 deg tp > 10mm/24h tp > 20mm/24h tp > 10mm/24h tp > 20mm/24h tp > 30mm/24h

10 COSMO-LEPS 10-MEMBER EPS 90th percentile values boxes 1.5x1.5 deg

11 COSMO-LEPS 10-MEMBER EPS tp > 20mm/24h tp > 10mm/24h tp > 20mm/24h tp > 30mm/24h Maximum values boxes 1.5x1.5 deg

12 COSMO-LEPS 10-MEMBER EPS Maximum values boxes 1.5x1.5 deg

13 FINE

14 C’era un errore sui dati polacchi (dati mancanti in un formato non previsto), l’ho corretto ed ho ricalcolato gli scores del valore medio per COSMO- LEPS e per EPS-10RM. Seguono I risultati per vedere l’impatto.

15 tp > 10mm/24h tp > 20mm/24h Average values boxes 1.5x1.5 deg tp > 20mm/24h tp > 10mm/24h COSMO-LEPS 10-MEMBER EPS Con errore dati mancanti PoloniaSenza errore dati mancanti Polonia

16 Average values boxes 1.5x1.5 deg COSMO-LEPS 10-MEMBER EPS Con errore dati mancanti PoloniaSenza errore dati mancanti Polonia tp > 10mm/24h tp > 20mm/24h tp > 10mm/24h tp > 20mm/24h

17 Average values boxes 1.5x1.5 deg COSMO-LEPS 10-MEMBER EPS Con errore dati mancanti PoloniaSenza errore dati mancanti Polonia tp > 30mm/24h N.B.: senza errore sui dati gli scores del valore medio (gli unici ricalcolati) complessivamente migliorano un po’, per entrambi i sistemi. La differenza di score tra i due sistemi rimane pero’ generalemente la stessa (aumenta un po’ per la ROC area a 30 mm)

18 Average and maxima

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