1 Analisi congiunturale Pavia, 18 Marzo 2008

2 Indice 1 Lo scenario macroeconomico globale 2 Central bank watching 3 Short term analysis, daily news e analisi dei dati (preview e review) 4 Focus sulleconomia italiana 5 Indicatori di sintesi

3 A brief sketch of a market economist work

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7 1 – La crisi del settore finanziario

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17 2 – Central bank watching

18 il comunicato (statement) della Fed: Release Date: January 22, 2008 The Federal Open Market Committee has decided to lower its target for the federal funds rate 75 basis points to 3-1/2 percent. The Committee took this action in view of a weakening of the economic outlook and increasing downside risks to growth. While strains in short-term funding markets have eased somewhat, broader financial market conditions have continued to deteriorate and credit has tightened further for some businesses and households. Moreover, incoming information indicates a deepening of the housing contraction as well as some softening in labor markets. The Committee expects inflation to moderate in coming quarters, but it will be necessary to continue to monitor inflation developments carefully. Appreciable downside risks to growth remain. The Committee will continue to assess the effects of financial and other developments on economic prospects and will act in a timely manner as needed to address those risks. Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Charles L. Evans; Thomas M. Hoenig; Donald L. Kohn; Randall S. Kroszner; Eric S. Rosengren; and Kevin M. Warsh. Voting against was William Poole, who did not believe that current conditions justified policy action before the regularly scheduled meeting next week. Absent and not voting was Frederic S. Mishkin.

19 il comunicato (statement) della Fed: Release Date: January 30, 2008 The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to lower its target for the federal funds rate 50 basis points to 3 percent. Financial markets remain under considerable stress, and credit has tightened further for some businesses and households. Moreover, recent information indicates a deepening of the housing contraction as well as some softening in labor markets. The Committee expects inflation to moderate in coming quarters, but it will be necessary to continue to monitor inflation developments carefully. Todays policy action, combined with those taken earlier, should help to promote moderate growth over time and to mitigate the risks to economic activity. However, downside risks to growth remain. The Committee will continue to assess the effects of financial and other developments on economic prospects and will act in a timely manner as needed to address those risks. Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Donald L. Kohn; Randall S. Kroszner; Frederic S. Mishkin; Sandra Pianalto; Charles I. Plosser; Gary H. Stern; and Kevin M. Warsh. Voting against was Richard W. Fisher, who preferred no change in the target for the federal funds rate at this meeting.

20 Lintroductory statement della ECB: …Incoming macroeconomic data point to moderating but ongoing real GDP growth. Yet the level of uncertainty resulting from the turmoil in financial markets remains high. Against this background we emphasize that maintaining price stability in the medium term is our primary objective in accordance with our mandate. Indeed the firm anchoring of medium to longer term inflation expectations is of the highest priority to the governing council.

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25 2 – Leconomia americana

26 Calendar, statement and minutes of FOMC meetings National accounts statistics Beige book is the report prepared by Feds districts

27 The housing sector

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30 Source: UniCredit Research & Strategy, OECD

31 Source: UniCredit Research & Strategy, OECD

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33 Mercato del lavoro

34 Industrial output

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36 Industrial output

37 The housing sector

38 I cicli economici US

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41 E in Europa?

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54 4 – Leconomia italiana

55 I più recenti dati di contabilità nazionale

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58 I cicli economici US

59 Un punto di vista originale: la survey Unicredit Confapi Nelle tabelle e grafici che seguono sono riportati i risultati in termini di saldo, cioè della differenza percentuale tra imprese che rispondono migliora e quelle che rispondono peggiora sia sulle condizioni correnti che su quelle future. Limpressione è che vi sia meno pessimismo di quanto emerga dai dati macroeconomici.

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62 Source: UniCredit Research & Strategy, OECD

63 Source: UniCredit Research & Strategy, OECD

64 6 – esempio di elaborazione di indicatori di sintesi

65 Come sintetizzare linformazione disponibile? 1.I molti dati disponibili a frequenza mensile non forniscono sempre indicazioni concordi. 2.Può essere utile anche come strumento di descrizione e comunicazione disporre di indicatori coincidenti del ciclo economico. 3.Sviluppo recente di metodologie che si fondano sullutilizzo di large dataset. 4.Applicazioni: CFNAI index Eurocoin Abbiamo elaborato per Germania Austria e Italia un indicatore simile al CFNAI. Vedi il documento allegato.

66 Source: UniCredit Research & Strategy, OECD Germany economic activity index

67 Italy economic activity index

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