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Modello di emissioni inquinanti atmosferici da incendi boschivi

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Presentazione sul tema: "Modello di emissioni inquinanti atmosferici da incendi boschivi"— Transcript della presentazione:

1 Modello di emissioni inquinanti atmosferici da incendi boschivi
Sviluppo MINNI Modello di emissioni inquinanti atmosferici da incendi boschivi Mihaela Mircea, Gaia Righini National Agency for New Technologies, Energy and Sustainable Economic Development (ENEA), via Martiri di Monte Sole 4, 40129, Bologna, Italy Sandro Finardi ARIANET Srl, Via Gilino, 9, 20128, Milan, Italy Plenaria Bologna, 24 marzo 2011

2 Wild land fires Despite several good examples that show the impact of domestic and extra EU wild-land fires on air quality and that highlight how this contribution can determine an exceedance of the daily average concentration of 50 µg/m3 for the PM101, no exhaustive method for the identification and the quantification of the impact of wild-land fires episodes have been developed and communicated to the Commission in the framework of the annual report on air quality assessment. (Guidance on natural contributions, Brussels, )

3 Modello di emissioni da incendi – stima della quantità di inquinanti emessa dai fuocchi
Approccio “bottom-up” Emiss - emissioni (kg) EF – fattore di emissione per specie (kg/kg) FL – massa di biomassa per area (kg/m2) CE – efficienza di combustione Area - area bruciata (m2) Specie emesse: Gas: CO,CH4,NH3,NMHC,NOx,SO2,CO2 Aerosol:PM2.5,PM10


5 FARM 1 artificial surfaces 2 agricultural surface 3 forest 4 grass 5
INCO AIRP OART ARAB RICE CROP PAST HAGR BROA CONI MIXF GRAS SHRU SAND BARE SPAR ICEF INWE COWE WATE INWA 1 artificial surfaces 2 agricultural surface 3 forest 4 grass 5 mixed 7 other 6 water FARM

6 EFFIS: area bruciata e emissioni in funzione del numero di classi di vegetazione
Luglio 2005

7 EFFIS: emissioni di varie specie in funzione del numero di classi di vegetazione
Luglio 2005

8 MODIS: area bruciata e emissioni in funzione del numero di classi di vegetazione
Luglio 2005 Total emissions in domain:8216 ktones Total emissions in domain: 10520 ktones

9 EFFIS: emissioni di varie specie in funzione del numero di classi di vegetazione
Luglio 2005

10 Confronto le emissioni derivati da MODIS e EFFIS

11 (Sofiev et al., Atmos. Chem. Phys., 9, 6833–6847, 2009)
FAS-FMI (Sofiev et al., Atmos. Chem. Phys., 9, 6833–6847, 2009) “For simple fire-detection purposes, the fire-classified pixel is attributed with the 4-μm brightness temperature T4 (this channel is the most-representative and least affected by other factors that are not connected with fires). The method is also known as hot-spot counting and the pixel temperature is further referred to in this study as the TA-value.” “As TA, the FRP data are included into the level 2 Fire Products (MOD14 for Terra and MYD14 for Aqua satellites) and are available with a comparatively short delay (usually within 1–2 days), which makes it possible to utilise them” “We assumed that inside the fire plumes, the AOD was entirely determined by the biomass-burning products. It is partly supported by S07 analysis, as they found that more than 80% of PM2.5 during a specific episode in May 2006 was originated from fires. We therefore attributed all systematic discrepancy between the observed and calculated column AOD to errors in the emission rates, and corrected the emission factors accordingly. The resulting emission coefficients for the European domain are the following: kg tPM MJ−1 forest, kg tPM MJ−1 for grassland.” “…admixture of gaseous species is emitted in addition to PM: 94% of CO, 1.3% of HCHO, 2.9% of NOx as NO2 ,1.4% of NH3 , and 0.4% of SO2 (mass fractions as species). The gaseous emission flux is assumed to be 7.9 times larger than the particulate mass flux. These fractions are assumed to be valid for all European land use types.”

12 Confronto ENEA-MODIS con FAS-FMI

13 ENEA-MODIS: Differences in emissions (kg) from wildfires due to B, CE and ei for July 2007.
co ch4 nh3 nmhc nox pm10 pm25 so2 co2 Max 7.82E+08 3.25E+07 9.29E+06 5.02E+07 4.11E+07 1.01E+08 8.38E+07 4.97E+06 1.46E+10 Orig 3.58E+08 1.41E+07 3.90E+06 1.83E+07 1.56E+07 4.18E+07 3.54E+07 2.31E+06 6.83E+09 max/orig 2.18 2.30 2.38 2.74 2.63 2.42 2.37 2.15 2.14

14 Conclusioni preliminari
La descrizione della vegetazione con più classi aumenta le emissioni I valori dei FL, CE e EF per le 3 classi di vegetazione non sono derivati da quelli per la vegetazione descritta con più classi Le emissioni di EFFIS e MODIS sono diverse perché le area bruciate sono diverse: per esempio EFFIS esclude molti fuochi in area agricole. EFFIS mostra che le emissioni degli incendi all’estero sono più grandi di quelli sull’Italia. La variazione massima delle emissioni dovuta ai parametri che caratterizzano i fuochi è circa un fattore 3 – stime finale in corso… Tra FAS e ENEA c’è una differenza di un fattore 10: approcci completamente diversi

15 Problemi nelle stime delle emissioni dai fuochi in Italia
Quale sorgente usare per identificare i VERI fuochi: EFFIS o MODIS? Quali valori usare per FL,CE e EF? C’è la possibilità di aver valori rappresentative per l’area mediterranea? Come fare la “calibrazione” del modello che stima le emissioni dei fuochi? Come stimare l’altezza dei fuochi e il ciclo giornaliero? In Italia, il trasporto delle sabbie sahariane e il contributo antropico alto all’aerosol esclude nella maggior parte dei casi l’utilizzo dei dati satellitari per rispondere alle ultime tre domande

16 Open wild-fires: guidance on natural sources (15 febbraio 2011)
The burning (naturally or man-made) of non-managed and managed forests and other vegetation, excluding agricultural burning of stubble etc. Compile data of a simultaneous time series for the regional background modelling, regional background station) relevant to the assessed site or area. The reference series that is not obtained through direct measurement has to be thoroughly validated and fit for purpose. The average of the PM10 concentrations registered in the 15 days before and in the 15 days after the episode in the reference time series is used as the background concentration. The difference between the concentrations measured during the episode and the above mentioned 30 days (episode days excluded) should be considered as contribution of the wild-land fires episodes. In case that the duration of the event is significant compared to 30 days, a more elaborate scheme may be necessary to adequately estimate the concentration levels without the wild land fire contribution. Wild-land fires are usually of anthropogenic origin, and may be prevented or controlled with appropriate actions to a significant extent. Member States should therefore effectively address this contribution in view of the possibility of subtraction only if the emissions are transported from regions outside the Member State (see Section 3.2.4) and when provisions of Directive 2008/50/EC related to the transboundary pollution have been applied. If the fire has extended from another Member State any deductions of the common contribution need to be accompanied with the description of measures taken at the short term to eliminate the fire and reduce the exposure of the population.

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