Capitolo 2: I dati della Macroeconomia

Obiettivi In questo capitolo vedremo: Prodotto Interno Lordo(PIL) Indice dei prezzi al consumo (CPI) Il tasso di disoccupazione These are three of the most important economic statistics. Policymakers and business people use them to monitor the economy and formulate appropriate policies. Economists use them to develop and test theories about how the economy works. Because we’ll be learning many of these theories, it’s worth spending some time now to really understand what these statistics mean, and how they are measured. © 2008 Worth Publishers Macroeconomics, European Edition Mankiw • Taylor

Il Flusso Circolare © 2008 Worth Publishers Macroeconomics, European Edition Mankiw • Taylor

Le componenti di Spesa del PIL Consumo Investimenti Spesa pubblica Esportazioni nette © 2008 Worth Publishers Macroeconomics, European Edition Mankiw • Taylor

Consumo (C) Def: il valore di tutti i beni e servizi comprati dalle famiglie. Include: Beni durevoli durata lunga es: macchine, elettrodomestici Beni non-durevoli durata breve es: cibo, vestiti Servizi lavori fatti per i consumatori es: lavaggio a secco, viaggi aerei. A consumer’s spending on a new house counts under investment, not consumption. More on this in a few moments, when we get to Investment. A tenant’s spending on rent counts under services -- rent is considered spending on “housing services.” So what happens if a renter buys the house she had been renting? Conceptually, consumption should remain unchanged: just because she is no longer paying rent, she is still consuming the same housing services as before. In national income accounting, (the services category of) consumption includes the imputed rental value of owner-occupied housing. To help students keep all this straight, you might suggest that they think of a house as a piece of capital which is used to produce a consumer service, which we might call “housing services”. Thus, spending on the house counts in “investment”, and the value of the housing services that the house provides counts under “consumption” (regardless of whether the housing services are being consumed by the owner of the house or a tenant). © 2008 Worth Publishers Macroeconomics, European Edition Mankiw • Taylor

Consumo delle famiglie nel R.U., 2004 % del PIL Miliardi Consumo Source: Table 6.2 of 2005’s Blue Book. Available at http://www.statistics.gov.uk/downloads/theme_economy/BB2005.pdf Does not include consumption of NPISH. In the U.S. the participation of private consumption in GDP is slightly higher, as the government sector is smaller. Consumption represents approximately 70%. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce (http://www.bea.doc.gov) Durevoli Non Durevoli Servizi © 2008 Worth Publishers Macroeconomics, European Edition Mankiw • Taylor

Investimenti (I) Includono: Investimenti fissi commerciali spesa su impianti e attrezzature che le imprese useranno per produrre altri beni & servizi Investimenti fissi residenziali spesa per unità abitative da parte dei consumatori e dei proprietari Scorte la variazione nel valore delle scorte di tutte le imprese In definition #1, note that aggregate investment equals total spending on newly produced capital goods. (If I pay €1000 for a used computer for my business, then I’m doing €1000 of investment, but the person who sold it to me is doing €1000 of disinvestment, so there is no net impact on aggregate investment.) The housing issue A consumer’s spending on a new house counts under investment, not consumption. A tenant’s spending on rent counts under services -- rent is considered spending on “housing services.” So what happens if a renter buys the house she had been renting? Conceptually, consumption should remain unchanged: just because she is no longer paying rent, she is still consuming the same housing services as before. In national income accounting, (the services category of) consumption includes the imputed rental value of owner-occupied housing. To help students keep all this straight, you might suggest that they think of a house as a piece of capital which is used to produce a consumer service, which we might call “housing services”. Thus, spending on the house counts in “investment”, and the value of the housing services that the house provides counts under “consumption” (regardless of whether the housing services are being consumed by the owner of the house or a tenant). Inventories If total inventories are €10 billion at the beginning of the year, and €12 billion at the end, then inventory investment equals €2 billion for the year. Note that inventory investment can be negative (which means inventories fell over the year). © 2008 Worth Publishers Macroeconomics, European Edition Mankiw • Taylor

Fissi non residenziali Investimenti nel R.U., 2004 % del PIL Miliardi Investimenti Fissi non residenziali Investment is also referred to as gross capital formation. Fissi residenziali Scorte © 2008 Worth Publishers Macroeconomics, European Edition Mankiw • Taylor

Investimenti vs. Capitale Il Capitale è uno dei fattori di produzione. In ogni momento, l’economia ha un determinato stock di capitale L’investimento è la spesa per il capitale aggiuntivo. © 2008 Worth Publishers Macroeconomics, European Edition Mankiw • Taylor

Stock vs. Flusso Altri esempi: stock flusso Flusso Stock La ricchezza di una persona Il risparmio di una persona Il numero delle persone con la laurea Il numero di nuovi laureati Il debito del Governo Il disavanzo di bilancio del Governo © 2008 Worth Publishers Macroeconomics, European Edition Mankiw • Taylor

Spesa del Governo (G) G include tutte le spese del Governo per beni e servizi. G esclude i trasferimenti (es. sussidi di disoccupazione e pensioni), perchè non rappresentano spesa in beni e servizi. Transfer payments are included in “government outlays,” but not in government spending. People who receive transfer payments use these funds to pay for their consumption. Thus, we avoid double-counting by excluding transfer payments from G. © 2008 Worth Publishers Macroeconomics, European Edition Mankiw • Taylor

Spesa del Governo nel R.U., 2004 % del PIL Miliardi Spesa Pubblica Governo Centrale Government Investment amounted to £21 billion. Defence spending can be found on table 11.2 of 2005’s Blue Book. In the U.S. this figure corresponds to about 4% of GDP. Non Difesa Difesa Regionale e locale © 2008 Worth Publishers Macroeconomics, European Edition Mankiw • Taylor

Esportazioni Nette(NX = EX - IM) def: Il valore delle Esportazioni Totali(EX) meno il valore delle Importazioni totali (IM) source: Office of National Statistics Before showing the data graph, the following explanation might be helpful: Remember, GDP is the value of spending on our country’s output of goods & services. Exports represent foreign spending on our country’s output, so we include exports. Imports represent the portion of domestic spending (C, I, and G) that goes to foreign goods and services, so we subtract off imports. NX, therefore, equals net spending by the foreign sector on domestically produced goods & services. © 2008 Worth Publishers Macroeconomics, European Edition Mankiw • Taylor

Esportazioni Nette(NX = EX - IM) def: Il valore delle Esportazioni Totali (EX) meno il valore delle Importazioni totali (IM) source: FRED Database, The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, http://www.stls.frb.org/fred/ One issue of debate among macroeconomists is whether the US will be able to sustain such a large trade deficit (€720 bn in 2005) or whether a devaluation of the US dollar is necessary to correct the imbalance. (A devaluation would make US goods cheaper and therefore more competitive, while making US imports more expensive) © 2008 Worth Publishers Macroeconomics, European Edition Mankiw • Taylor

Un’importante identità Y = C + I + G + NX dove Y = PIL = Valore dell’output totale C + I + G + NX = spesa aggregata A few slides ago, we defined GDP as the total expenditure on the economy’s output of goods and services (as well as total income). We can also define GDP as (the value of) aggregate output, not just spending on output. An identity is an equation that always holds because of the way the variables are defined. © 2008 Worth Publishers Macroeconomics, European Edition Mankiw • Taylor

PIL: Un’importante e versatile concetto Abbiamo visto che il PIL misura Reddito Totale Output Totale Spesa Totale La somma del valore aggiunto ad ogni stadio della produzione di beni finali. This is why economists often use the terms income, output, expenditure, and GDP interchangeably. © 2008 Worth Publishers Macroeconomics, European Edition Mankiw • Taylor

PNL vs. PIL Prodotto Nazionale Lordo (PNL): reddito totale guadagnato dai fattori produttivi nazionali, indipendentemente dalla loro ubicazione Prodotto Interno Lordo(PIL): reddito totale guadagnato dai fattori produttivi nella nazione, indipendentemente dalla nazionalità. Emphasize that the difference between GDP and GNP boils down to two things: location of the economic activity, and ownership (domestic vs. foreign) of the factors of production. From the perspective of the UK, factor payments from abroad includes things like wages earned by the British citizens working abroad profits earned by British-owned businesses located abroad income (interest, dividends, rent, etc) generated from the foreign assets owned by British citizens Factor payments to abroad includes things like wages earned by foreign workers in the UK. profits earned by foreign-owned businesses located in the UK. income (interest, dividends, rent, etc) that foreigners earn on UK assets Chapter 3 introduces factor markets and factor prices. Unless you’ve already covered that material, it might be worth mentioning to your students that factor payments are simply payments to the factors of production, for example, the wages earned by labour. © 2008 Worth Publishers Macroeconomics, European Edition Mankiw • Taylor

PIL Reale vs. Nominale Il PIL è il valore di tutti I beni finali e servizi prodotti. PIL Nominale misura questo valore usando i prezzi correnti. PIL Reale misura questo valore usando i prezzi di un anno base. © 2008 Worth Publishers Macroeconomics, European Edition Mankiw • Taylor

Il Pil Reale controlla l’Inflazione Variazioni nel PIL nominale possono essere dovute a: Variazioni di prezzo Varizioni nelle quantità di output prodotto Variazioni nel PIL reale sono dovute solo a variazioni delle quantità, poichè il PIL reale è costruito usando il prezzo dell’anno base Suppose from 2004 to 2005, nominal GDP rises by 10%. Some of this growth could be due to price increases, because an increase in the price of output causes an increase in the value of output, even if the real quantity remains the same. Hence, to control for inflation, we use real GDP. Remember, real GDP is the value of output using constant base-year prices. If real GDP grows by 6% from 2004 to 2005, we can be sure that all of this growth is due to an increase in the economy’s actual production of goods and services, because the same prices are used to construct real GDP in 2004 and 2005. © 2008 Worth Publishers Macroeconomics, European Edition Mankiw • Taylor

PIL reale e nominale nel R.U.: 1948-2004 Notice that the blue line is steeper than the orange line. That’s because prices generally rise over time. So, nominal GDP grows at a faster rate than real GDP. What is the significance of the two lines crossing in 2002? Answer: 2002 is the base year for this real GDP series, so RGDP = NGDP in 2002 only. Before 2002, RGDP > NGDP, while after 2002, RGDP < NGDP. This is intuitive if you think about it for a minute. Take 1948. When the economy’s output of 1948 is measured in current prices, GDP is only about £12 billion. Between 1948 and 2002, most prices have risen. Hence, if you value the country’s 1948 GDP using 2002 prices (to get real GDP), you get a much bigger value than if you just measure 1948’s output in 1948 prices (nominal GDP) – some £ 260 bn. As you see, even in countries that had only moderate levels of inflation the difference becomes very significant if we take longer horizons. In countries where the inflation rate is high, nominal GDP figures alone hardly tell us anything useful. © 2008 Worth Publishers Macroeconomics, European Edition Mankiw • Taylor

PIL relativo pro-capite dei membri dell’UE aggiustati per i prezzi: 2004 (Media UE=100) Austria 122.8 Olanda 124.5 Lettonia 42.9 Belgio 118.5 Portogallo 72.2 f Lituania 47.9 Danimarca 121.3 Spagna 97.7 f Malta 69.2 Finlandia 112.4 Svezia 117.5 Polonia 48.9 Francia 109.4 Regno Unito 116.4 Slovacchia 51.9 Germania 108.8 Slovenia 79.2 Grecia 81.5 Cipro 83.3 Irlanda 137.2 Rep. Ceca 70.4 U.S.A. 150.7 Italia 103.0 f Estonia 51.3 Giappne 109.7 f Lussemburgo 226.4 f Ungheria 60.2 Svizzera 131.5 f © 2008 Worth Publishers Macroeconomics, European Edition Mankiw • Taylor

Deflatore del PIL Il tasso di inflazione è l’incremento percentuale del livello generale dei prezzi. Una misura del livello del prezzo è il deflatore del PIL ,definito come After revealing the first bullet point, mention that there are several different measures of the overall price level. Your students are probably familiar with one of them---the EU Harmonized Consumer Price Index, which will be covered shortly or the Retail Price Index in the UK. For now, though, we learn about a different one <reveal next bullet point>, the GDP deflator. The GDP deflator is so named because it is used to “deflate” (remove the effects of inflation from) GDP and other economic variables. © 2008 Worth Publishers Macroeconomics, European Edition Mankiw • Taylor

Lavorare con variazioni percentuale TRUCCO UTILE #1 Per ogni variabile X e Y, la variazione precentuale di (X  Y )  la variazione percentuale di X + la variazione percentuale di Y Es.: Se il tuo salario orario aumenta del 5% e lavori il 7% di ore in più, allora il tuo stipendio aumenta approssimativamente del 12%. © 2008 Worth Publishers Macroeconomics, European Edition Mankiw • Taylor

Lavorare con le variazioni percentuali TRUCCO UTILE#2 la variazione percentuale di (X/Y )  la variazione percentuale di X  la variazione percentuale di Y This approximations are better when moderate percentage changes are involved: say, below 10%. Es.: deflatore del PIL = 100  NGDP/RGDP. Se NGDP aumenta del 9% e RGDP aumenta del 4%, allora il tasso di inflazione è approssimativamente del 5%. © 2008 Worth Publishers Macroeconomics, European Edition Mankiw • Taylor

L’inflazione in UE nel 2004 Euroarea: 2.4% The Eurozone inflation rate was somewhat above the European Central Bank’s target of “up to 2%”. Note that, even though inflation rates of countries like Greece and Portugal seem to have converged from higher levels to the Eurozone average, there is substantial variation across the 12 countries that share the same currency. Euroarea: 2.4% © 2008 Worth Publishers Macroeconomics, European Edition Mankiw • Taylor

Risposte: Costo del CPI Tasso di paniere inflazione 2000 €350 100.0 n.a. 2001 370 105.7 5.7% 2002 400 114.3 8.1% 2003 410 117.1 2.5% © 2008 Worth Publishers Macroeconomics, European Edition Mankiw • Taylor

CPI vs. deflatore del PIL Prezzi dei beni capitali Inclusi nel deflatore del PIL (se prodotti all’interno) Esclusi dal CPI Prezzi dei beni di consumo importati Inclusi nel CPI Esclusi dal deflatore del PIL Il paniere di beni CPI: fisso Deflatore del PIL: cambia ogni anno. © 2008 Worth Publishers Macroeconomics, European Edition Mankiw • Taylor

Categorie di popolazione occupati lavoro remunerato disoccupati non occupati ma in cerca di un lavoro forza lavoro la quantità di lavoro disponibile per produrre beni e servizi; tutti gli occupati più i disoccupati non forza lavoro disoccupati,non in cerca di lavoro. © 2008 Worth Publishers Macroeconomics, European Edition Mankiw • Taylor

Due importanti concetti della forza lavoro Tasso di disoccupazione percentuale della forza lavoro che è disoccupata Tasso di partecipazione alla forza lavoro la frazione di popolazione adulta che “partecipa” alla forza lavoro © 2008 Worth Publishers Macroeconomics, European Edition Mankiw • Taylor

Esercizo: Calcola le statistiche della forza lavoro Popolazione tedesca adulta per gruppo, 2003 Numero occupati = 35.8 milioni Numero disoccupati = 3.8 milioni Popolazione adulta = 82.5 milioni source: Quarterly Labour Force Statistics of the OECD Data reflect only civilian labour force. Non-civilian employed were 235,000. Usa i dati sopra per calcolare La forza lavoro Il numero di persone non nella forza lavoro Il tasso di partecipazione alla forza lavoro Il tasso di disoccupazione © 2008 Worth Publishers Macroeconomics, European Edition Mankiw • Taylor

Risposte: dati: O = 35.8, D = 3.8, POP = 82.5 Forza Lavoro L = O +D = 35.8 + 3.8 = 39.6 Non Forza Lavoro NIFL = POP – L = 82.5 – 39.6 = 42.9 Tasso di disoccupazione D/L = 3.8/39.6 = 0.096 o 9.6% Tasso di partecipazione alla forza lavoro L/POP = 39.6/82.5 = 0.48 o 48% The labour force participation in the U.S. is much higher, at around 68%. © 2008 Worth Publishers Macroeconomics, European Edition Mankiw • Taylor