ISTITUTO DI BIOMETEOROLOGIA - CONSIGLIO NAZIONALE DELLE RICERCHE WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE (14-17 June 2005, Bologna, Italy) Baseline agro-climatic classification of Tuscany for climate scenarios applications A.Crisci, G. Barcaioli, R. Magno

ISTITUTO DI BIOMETEOROLOGIA - CONSIGLIO NAZIONALE DELLE RICERCHE WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE (14-17 June 2005, Bologna, Italy) How to merge future global climatic trends with local climate variability? How to work with climatic scenarios data for agriculture applications? Aim of work is to give an answer

ISTITUTO DI BIOMETEOROLOGIA - CONSIGLIO NAZIONALE DELLE RICERCHE WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE (14-17 June 2005, Bologna, Italy) What is a Climatic Scenario? Scenarios are images of how future might evolve. Scenarios are NOT predictions or forecasts. Scenarios should be based on internally consistent and reproducible sets of assumptions about main driving forces (population, economic growth, technology) and their relationships with climate.

ISTITUTO DI BIOMETEOROLOGIA - CONSIGLIO NAZIONALE DELLE RICERCHE WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE (14-17 June 2005, Bologna, Italy) SRES: Main Scenarios hypothesis and their characteristics A1 High emission A2 Medium-high emission B2 Medium- low emission B1 Low emission Every climatic scenarios is based on assumptions on future expected condition called driving forces

ISTITUTO DI BIOMETEOROLOGIA - CONSIGLIO NAZIONALE DELLE RICERCHE WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE (14-17 June 2005, Bologna, Italy) For climatic scenarios a key factor is carbon dioxide emission Climate scenarios are numerical simulations of atmosphere (GCM) with precise assumptions on future greenhouse gases emissions.

ISTITUTO DI BIOMETEOROLOGIA - CONSIGLIO NAZIONALE DELLE RICERCHE WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE (14-17 June 2005, Bologna, Italy) GCMs – Global Circulation Models ECHAM DKRZ (Hamburg) CCM NCAR (Boulder) HadCM3 Hadley Center (GB) GFDL Geofluidodynamics Lab. (Princeton, USA) CSIRO Australia's Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation

ISTITUTO DI BIOMETEOROLOGIA - CONSIGLIO NAZIONALE DELLE RICERCHE WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE (14-17 June 2005, Bologna, Italy) Data Spatialisation Zoning First step to use scenarios application is to understand the real climate variability distribution on a defined territory. This is possible through … For each area, with available climatic scenarios’ data, is possible to perform Local Downscaling

ISTITUTO DI BIOMETEOROLOGIA - CONSIGLIO NAZIONALE DELLE RICERCHE WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE (14-17 June 2005, Bologna, Italy) Climatic Data Spatialisation

ISTITUTO DI BIOMETEOROLOGIA - CONSIGLIO NAZIONALE DELLE RICERCHE WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE (14-17 June 2005, Bologna, Italy) Example: Tuscany network stations TermometricPluviometric

ISTITUTO DI BIOMETEOROLOGIA - CONSIGLIO NAZIONALE DELLE RICERCHE WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE (14-17 June 2005, Bologna, Italy) Tuscany topographic variables: elevetion, latitude, longitude …

ISTITUTO DI BIOMETEOROLOGIA - CONSIGLIO NAZIONALE DELLE RICERCHE WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE (14-17 June 2005, Bologna, Italy) Through different spatialization methods is easy to obtain climatology of Temperature …

ISTITUTO DI BIOMETEOROLOGIA - CONSIGLIO NAZIONALE DELLE RICERCHE WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE (14-17 June 2005, Bologna, Italy) …Rainfall and Evapotranspiration at monthly scale.

ISTITUTO DI BIOMETEOROLOGIA - CONSIGLIO NAZIONALE DELLE RICERCHE WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE (14-17 June 2005, Bologna, Italy) Applied climatology with GIS traitement leads to agrometeorologic products: Annual hydrologic budget

ISTITUTO DI BIOMETEOROLOGIA - CONSIGLIO NAZIONALE DELLE RICERCHE WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE (14-17 June 2005, Bologna, Italy) ZONING

ISTITUTO DI BIOMETEOROLOGIA - CONSIGLIO NAZIONALE DELLE RICERCHE WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE (14-17 June 2005, Bologna, Italy) ZONING definition To delimit and to identify homogenuos climatic areas based on their thermometric and pluviometric monthly climatology on a specific territory.

ISTITUTO DI BIOMETEOROLOGIA - CONSIGLIO NAZIONALE DELLE RICERCHE WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE (14-17 June 2005, Bologna, Italy) After spatialisation, taking into account the climatic variability for a single site, is possible, through GIS techniques, to use a PCA analysis of monthly climatology of rainfall and temperature. Unsupervised k-means clustering on PC scores images give a good results. Other methodologies of pattern recognition are today available. ZONING methodology

ISTITUTO DI BIOMETEOROLOGIA - CONSIGLIO NAZIONALE DELLE RICERCHE WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE (14-17 June 2005, Bologna, Italy) ZONING: Cluster analysis K-means on PC - Identified areas 1. Apuane 2. Aree interne (crete senesi-Val di Chiana) 3. Subappennino settentrionale 4. Val di Cornia 5. Piana pisana 6. Basso grossetano 7. Grossetano 8. Crinale orientale 9. Zona pedemontana 10. Appennino 11. Area collinare centrale 12. Valli interne 13. Valdarno 14. Crinale settentrionale 15. Isole

ISTITUTO DI BIOMETEOROLOGIA - CONSIGLIO NAZIONALE DELLE RICERCHE WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE (14-17 June 2005, Bologna, Italy) ZONING : is possible to extract monthly area climatology

ISTITUTO DI BIOMETEOROLOGIA - CONSIGLIO NAZIONALE DELLE RICERCHE WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE (14-17 June 2005, Bologna, Italy) Local statistical downscaling

ISTITUTO DI BIOMETEOROLOGIA - CONSIGLIO NAZIONALE DELLE RICERCHE WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE (14-17 June 2005, Bologna, Italy) SCENARIOS DATA : HADCM3 GCM Hadley Centre Period: Data: daily Parameters: Precipitation, T° max, T°min Lon ( 5 – 20) Lat (35 – 42) Scenarios data have low resolution so are not available for agrometeorological purposes. Downscaling.

ISTITUTO DI BIOMETEOROLOGIA - CONSIGLIO NAZIONALE DELLE RICERCHE WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE (14-17 June 2005, Bologna, Italy) Statistical Downscaling GCM Downscaling techniques have been developed in order to provide information on detailed scale. Statistical downscaling is based on the assumption that regional climate is conditioned by the large-scale climatic state and local or regional physiographic features, such as topography, land-sea distribution and land use (e.g. von Storch 1999). Based on this assumption, observed time series are used to establish an empirical relationship between local variables and large-scale variables. Generally we use quantile regression method on daily data, with markovian adjustment for rainfall downscaling ( CLIMAGRI project).

ISTITUTO DI BIOMETEOROLOGIA - CONSIGLIO NAZIONALE DELLE RICERCHE WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE (14-17 June 2005, Bologna, Italy) Downscaling of daily scenario data validation Quantile-plot downscaled and observed data Accurate for temperature and sufficient for rainfall Tmax Tmin Rainfall

ISTITUTO DI BIOMETEOROLOGIA - CONSIGLIO NAZIONALE DELLE RICERCHE WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE (14-17 June 2005, Bologna, Italy) Example in Excellence wine production site: Montalcino Zone 2 : Crete senesi Comparison SRES scenario A2 vs B2 Montalcino

ISTITUTO DI BIOMETEOROLOGIA - CONSIGLIO NAZIONALE DELLE RICERCHE WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE (14-17 June 2005, Bologna, Italy) Montalcino (August Tmax deviations)

ISTITUTO DI BIOMETEOROLOGIA - CONSIGLIO NAZIONALE DELLE RICERCHE WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE (14-17 June 2005, Bologna, Italy) Montalcino GDD 5°C - Winter

ISTITUTO DI BIOMETEOROLOGIA - CONSIGLIO NAZIONALE DELLE RICERCHE WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE (14-17 June 2005, Bologna, Italy) Montalcino GDD °5C -Spring

ISTITUTO DI BIOMETEOROLOGIA - CONSIGLIO NAZIONALE DELLE RICERCHE WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE (14-17 June 2005, Bologna, Italy) Montalcino (Rainfall - January)

ISTITUTO DI BIOMETEOROLOGIA - CONSIGLIO NAZIONALE DELLE RICERCHE WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE (14-17 June 2005, Bologna, Italy) Montalcino (Rainfall - May)

ISTITUTO DI BIOMETEOROLOGIA - CONSIGLIO NAZIONALE DELLE RICERCHE WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE (14-17 June 2005, Bologna, Italy) Montalcino (Rainy days- January)

ISTITUTO DI BIOMETEOROLOGIA - CONSIGLIO NAZIONALE DELLE RICERCHE WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE (14-17 June 2005, Bologna, Italy) Montalcino (Summer maximun dry spell)

ISTITUTO DI BIOMETEOROLOGIA - CONSIGLIO NAZIONALE DELLE RICERCHE WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE (14-17 June 2005, Bologna, Italy) Montalcino ( Frost days avril)

ISTITUTO DI BIOMETEOROLOGIA - CONSIGLIO NAZIONALE DELLE RICERCHE WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE (14-17 June 2005, Bologna, Italy) Conclusions Important to choose best GCM model for the study area. Adequate spatialisation method in relation to topographic complexity and abundance of climatic data. Caution using scenarios results, because are simulations not forecasts.